Harris vs. Trump: Here’s why voter turnout could drop in 2024

There are some polling signs that suggest voter turnout could drop in next week’s election, according to CNN political analyst Harry Enten.
Enten explained Monday why less people could cast ballots in this year’s election than in the 2020 election as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump attempt to shore up support in the final days of the campaign. He said on CNN that voters are less enthusiastic about this year’s race and don’t think that the stakes are as high as they were in 2020.
He said smaller shares of registered voters said they are certain to vote and that lower shares are also extremely motivated to vote.
“Back in 2020 at this point, 88 percent of registered voters said they were certain to vote. Where are we today? It’s just 81 percent … it’s a seven point drop,” he said. “How about extremely motivated to vote? At this point in 2020 it was 73 percent. You look now, it’s just 65 percent. Again, a high single digit drop—eight points in this particular case.”
“So when you’re looking at polling, when you’re looking at these different metrics, all look just weaker compared to four years ago. But to me, the polling here, which is oftentimes quite predictive, is the most important nugget, where we see fewer people saying they’re certain to vote and fewer people saying they’re extremely motivated,” Enten said.
He then explained that people are less likely to vote because fewer people believe that the 2024 election is the most important election of their lifetimes when compared to the 2020 election.
“Every single year, people say, ‘This is the most important election ever,’ right? Well, they actually polled this: the most important election of my lifetime. Back in 2020, look at the 74 percent of registered voters said that—yes—it was the most important election of their lifetime. This time around, it’s actually less. It’s 65 percent,” Enten said.
“And that’s still a pretty impressive number, but it’s a drop of nearly 10 points of Americans or registered voters saying it’s the most important election of the lifetime, despite the fact that we have all these politicians out there saying it, voters are actually slightly less likely to agree with them,” he added.
He also went on to say that low voter turnout—which typically favors Republicans—will likely not favor either party in this year’s election because the race is historically close in the polls. Recent polls show Harris and Trump polling neck-and-neck with nearly one week to go before Election Day.
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